We've finally made it to the College Football Playoff National Championship. It truly has been a great year filled with ups and downs. There were some crazy games, some strange games, nail bitters, blow-outs and everything in between. The final game to cap off the 2023-2024 season with be between the Michigan Wolverines (14-0) vs the Washington Huskies (14-0) on Monday, 1/8 at 7:30 pm eastern.
HOW DID THEY GET HERE?
MICHIGAN (14-0, 36.0 ppg)
The Wolverines were not a preseason favorite by any means. In fact, they were not even the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten. Michigan's schedule in September and October was very suspect. At one point they had the 121st out of 130 hardest strength of schedule in the country. In other words, they played terrible teams all year. That was until we got too November.
Notable Wins: @Penn State 24-15, vs. Ohio State 30-24, vs. Alabama 27-20
WASHINGTON (14-0, 37.6 ppg)
The Huskies have been phenomenal all year. No one expected them to get this far with how difficult their schedule has been. This team is battle tested but Michigan has the CFP pedigree. QB Michael Penix Jr. this year was more than deserving of the Heisman that he did not win. And I think he's just used it as motivation in these last two games.
Notable Wins: vs. Oregon 36-33, @USC 52-42, vs. Utah 35-28, @Oregon State 22-20,
vs. Oregon 34-31, vs. Texas 37-31
THE PICKS
There is no doubt in my mind that this will be a great game, perhaps one of the greatest National Championships played in the playoff era. God, I hope I am right about that. Let's take a look at how Vegas thinks this one will play out.
Michigan -4.5 and -200 moneyline
Washington +4.5 and +160 moneyline
Over/Under 56.5
As a general rule of thumb I never touch over unders. I just do not trust them. It's fun having the over in an NBA game but a College Football Natty has way too much on the line to sweat out a total points wager. If you absolutely forced me, I would take the Over 56.5
As for a spread/ml winner, this is a toss up. I was way off on my Semi-Final predictions (I had Bama vs. Texas) but I let my emotions play a factor in my picks which is something you should never do. This game I need to be different. There's obviously no value at Michigan ml, but what about their spread? 4.5 is pretty large and might be a major sweat as the game progresses, but they are too good. Michigan -4.5 is the pick.
Some additional props to perhaps look out for that I like:
Penix: o/u 292.5 passing yards - OVER
JJ McCarthy: o/u 1.5 passing TDs - UNDER
Blake Corrum: o/u 117.5 rushing and receiving yards - OVER
As always, if you are going to place a wager on this game, please be sure to do so responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
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