The final college football top 25 poll of the regular season just dropped and the top 8 teams looks something like this:
Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Florida State
Oregon
Ohio State
Texas
Alabama
As it stands right now, there are several ways the College Football Playoff plays out. In this article I will go down as many scenarios as possible and then give my final prediction.
Scenario 1: The Most Likely
In scenario 1, we have a very simple series of events. The season will most likely play out like:
UGA defeats BAMA in the SEC Championship --> UGA is the 1 seed.
MICH defeats IOWA in the BIG10 Championship --> MICH is the 2 seed.
WASH defeats ORE in the PAC12 Championship --> WASH is the 3 seed.
FSU defeats LOU in the ACC Championship --> FSU is the 4 seed.
Now this is all good and fun but we can't possibly expect this much certainty in the crazy world of CFB. So, let's spice things up.
Scenario 2: Bama's Revenge
MICH defeats IOWA in the BIG10 Championship --> MICH is the 1 seed.
WASH defeats ORE in the PAC12 Championship --> WASH is the 2 seed.
BAMA defeats UGA in the SEC Championship --> BAMA is the 3 seed.
FSU defeats LOU in the ACC Championship --> FSU is the 4 seed.
Now, scenario 2 is fun and all, but it doesn't quite shake everything up as much as we want. And yes, an undefeated FSU will remain at 4 and 1-loss Bama deserves the 3. It is impossible to justify this FSU team without their starting QB, Jordan Travis, who suffered a horrific leg injury a few weeks ago.
The real dilemma here is Florida State. A lot of people, myself included, believes they won't be much of a threat in the CFP. It is a fair assumption, especially with how 80% of CFP Semi-Finals go. (With the exception of last year.) In a perfect world, Louisville beats Florida State in the ACC Championship game. This scenario could open a door for Texas to get in.
Scenario 3: Texas Sneaks In
UGA defeats BAMA in the SEC Championship --> UGA is the 1 seed.
MICH defeats IOWA in the BIG10 Championship --> MICH is the 2 seed.
WASH defeats ORE in the PAC12 Championship --> WASH is the 3 seed.
LOU defeats FSU in the ACC Championship --> FSU is OUT
TEXAS defeats OK. ST. in the BIG12 Championship --> TEXAS is the 4 seed.
Let's keep building off this but add a little more drama.
Scenario 4: Bo *Bleeping* Nix
UGA defeats BAMA in the SEC Championship --> UGA is the 1 seed.
MICH defeats IOWA in the BIG10 Championship --> MICH is the 2 seed.
ORE defeats WASH in the PAC12 Championship --> ORE is the 3 seed.
LOU defeats FSU in the ACC Championship --> FSU is OUT
TEXAS defeats OK. ST. in the BIG12 Championship --> TEXAS is the 4 seed.
Yeah, I guess that's not so dramatic, but it's really a win-and-in situation in the PAC12 Championship game. Texas needs help from Louisville to have a chance. (Unless Michigan loses, we'll get to that.)
We need more drama.
Scenario 5: Absolute Chaos
IOWA defeats MICH in the BIG10 Championship --> MICH is OUT
ORE defeats WASH in the PAC12 Championship --> ORE is the 1 seed.
BAMA defeats UGA in the SEC Championship --> BAMA is the 2 seed.
LOU defeats FSU in the ACC Championship --> FSU is OUT
TEXAS defeats OK. ST. in the BIG12 Championship --> TEXAS is the 3 seed.
Who gets the last spot? Do you give it to a team that just lost their conference championship? (UGA, MICH, FSU, WASH?)
Do you give it to a team that didn't even participate in their conference championship? (OSU?)
...No way, right? I think in Scenario 5, UGA gets in as the 4 seed. What do you think? Surely there are other scenarios to play out but these seem the most intriguing/realistic to me. Trust me, I know I missed a few, and I would go all day if I could.
My Prediction: Texas Sneaks In
1. UGA 2. MICH 3. WASH 4. TEXAS
I just don't think Florida State is good enough to consistently win games without their captain Quarterback. This scenario not only feels the best prediction wise, but it also feels like the most deserving 4 teams in all of CFB are getting in.
Buckle up, because if I know anything about CFB, it's that this weekend's conference championship games are about to be real spicy.
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